After a plus of more than ten per cent last month for US equities, the market is firmly convinced of a soft landing for the US economy. The US central bank’s policy rate will peak this year and the market is expecting the Fed to cut rates for the first…

The oil price has not fallen since June because of increased supply. Apart from speculative positions around the war in Ukraine, a deal with Iran or anticipating a recession, this means that there must be less demand. Now energy prices are fairly inelastic, but even then there is a moment…

The energy transition is a metal transition. Instead of burning fossil fuels, a lot of metal is needed to generate, store and transport energy. The most essential metal is copper. An electric car uses four times more copper than a fossil-fuelled car. For example, copper is also required to transport…

It is not a recession that is putting pressure on prices. Nor is inflation the major culprit this year. Prices are under pressure because there is less liquidity. The years of abundant liquidity are over. That was the period when central bankers promised that interest rates would remain low for…

With an interest rate increase of half a per cent, the ECB is once again surrendering some of its credibility. From now on, the ECB will also be guided by economic data and the central bank will be indicating that forecasting is pointless. There is also an advantage to this…

Once again, US inflation figures are higher than expected, a new record for the past 40 years. It is also striking that the various methods of measuring underlying or core inflation suddenly started to rise sharply. Although crude oil prices have fallen, petrol and diesel prices are relatively high due…

It is remarkable how many sides are predicting a recession, while such a recession has obviously not yet been factored into the share prices. Even in the first week of the number season, in which mainly financial institutions reported results, there were no signs that a recession was imminent. A…

Boris Johnson’s departure from Downing street 10 seems inevitable, though you never know with Boris. Johnson, of course, was the Prime Minister who campaigned on ‘Get Brexit Done’ and his departure inevitably means a greater rapprochement with the Eurozone. Johnson’s ideology does not bind the new Prime Minister (because of…

The biggest risk for investors is not a recession, but disappointing inflation figures. The stock market has already partly discounted a recession but assumes that in just over a year’s time, this will bring inflation back to 2 per cent. First of all, a recession does not automatically mean that…