In the past six weeks, shares have fallen every week. This has not been the case since mid-2008. It is only that the S&P 500 recovered last Friday, otherwise it would have lost more than 20 per cent from its peak last year, the point at which there is a…

Volatility in investing is often equated with risk. This is nonsense. For an active investor, volatility is actually an opportunity, namely the possibility to buy low and sell high. The real risk of investing is a permanent loss of wealth, although, with today’s high inflation, that is mainly a permanent…

Russia has stopped supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria. The countries have to pay for their gas in roubles and they cannot do that because of European sanctions. They have to do business with the Russian central bank and they have to sign a new contract with Gazprom, which is…

The Japanese government has been pushing for a weak yen for a long time. A weak currency led to higher profits for Japanese exporters and to more import inflation, which is handy if you are trying to get inflation up. At the same time, the Japanese are very rich, but…

The Ukrainian war, soaring energy costs, bad weather related to climate change, shrinking arable land and the aftermath of corona in China will keep food prices high for much longer. Different businesses can benefit from this. In the food chain, however, there are big differences between producers and their buyers…

Apparently, the signals from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting had not yet been received by the financial markets. The Federal Reserve indicated at the time that the Fed would be raising interest rates aggressively, which would amount to half a percent in May (3 and 4 May)…

The global equity market is only just below its highest point ever. This is probably caused by the rotation out of bonds and even cash into equities. This is because the real interest rate (interest minus inflation) is so negative that investors are, as it were, fleeing in equities. Contrary…

The three decades or so that coincided with the Bretton Woods system are often seen as a time of relative stability, order and discipline. But given that it took almost 15 years after the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 for the system to become fully operational, and that even then…

Today the first round of the French presidential election is being held. No candidate will obtain an absolute majority and therefore a second round will take place on Sunday 24 April. Macron is leading in the polls, but the gap with Le Pen has narrowed recently. If these two candidates…