With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprising the market with an adjustment in monetary policy at the previous meeting in late 2022, the market speculated on the next move. The market was counting on the central bank to throw in the towel on Yield-Curve-Control (YCC). This YCC policy is not…

The combination of slowing inflation and the rapid reopening of China’s economy is creating enthusiasm in the stock market in the first two weeks of the new year. Falling inflation is lowering interest rates and China is causing growth expectations to be revised upwards. This increases the likelihood of a…

Fourth-quarter earnings expectations in the United States do not appear to be high. While the US economy grows by 4 per cent according to the Fed’s initial estimates, corporate profits are down 4 per cent, according to analysts. Moreover, corporate profits are nominal, meaning that on top of that 4…

It is strange that the US central bank, in setting monetary policy, uses precise economic figures that look only backward and not forwards. Like inflation, unemployment is by definition at the end of the process. There are plenty of leading indicators that paint a much better picture of the future…

The US dollar was the 2022 currency to beat. In the end, it was only succeeded by the currencies of some Latin American countries, the Mexican Peso and the Russian rouble. As a reserve currency, the US currency is a special one. In troubled times, the currency is strong, but…

With inflation starting to fall and central banks soon to stop raising interest rates, there is renewed speculation about the likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy. With many investors still taking a negative view of financial markets and plenty of liquidity on the sidelines, this could cause…

The United States took over from the United Kingdom as the world’s most powerful nation in the early 20th century. Not only politically and militarily, but also culturally. In retrospect, the Cold War between Russia and the United States was a long period of stability and oversight. Thanks to mutually…

The direction of financial markets at the moment is mainly determined by interest rate movements. Whereas rising interest rates first caused price losses, falling interest rates are now causing price gains. Interest rates are falling because inflation is likely to have peaked in the United States. While inflation figures came…

Ten years ago, a Japanese with 10,000 yen could buy a $132 product in the United States, now a product of only $71. Conversely, Japan has become cheaper and cheaper for tourists. Ten years ago, you only got 100 yen for a euro, now it’s 145 (100 yen/141 US$). Until…