Ukraine and Russia together produce 30% of the world’s grain and as much as 65% of all sunflower oil. Ukraine used to be the world’s largest grain exporter, but the volume has fallen from 5 million tonnes per month to 500 000 tonnes per month. As a result, some 35…

The sentiment is at a low, some sentiment indicators cannot fall any further. Sentiment indicators are relatively good for determining a bottom in the stock market, much better in any case than for determining a top. Negative sentiment is much more contagious than positive sentiment and therefore highly clustered. These…

US inflation rose more than expected last Friday. Total inflation rose by 1 per cent compared to the previous month, core inflation by 0.6 per cent. As a result, total inflation reached 8.6 per cent (the highest level since 1981). The inflationary pressure is broadly spread, from cars to clothing…

Currencies are the ultimate outlet for monetary and economic imbalances. Now, monetary policies vary widely. In many parts of the world, post-corona monetary madness has broken out, the main reason for the sharp rise in inflation. But many emerging countries do not have such a luxury; they are more…

The turmoil in the crypto market was ironically triggered by volatility in stablecoins.

In the past six weeks, shares have fallen every week. This has not been the case since mid-2008. It is only that the S&P 500 recovered last Friday, otherwise it would have lost more than 20 per cent from its peak last year, the point at which there is a…

Volatility in investing is often equated with risk. This is nonsense. For an active investor, volatility is actually an opportunity, namely the possibility to buy low and sell high. The real risk of investing is a permanent loss of wealth, although, with today’s high inflation, that is mainly a permanent…

Russia has stopped supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria. The countries have to pay for their gas in roubles and they cannot do that because of European sanctions. They have to do business with the Russian central bank and they have to sign a new contract with Gazprom, which is…

The Japanese government has been pushing for a weak yen for a long time. A weak currency led to higher profits for Japanese exporters and to more import inflation, which is handy if you are trying to get inflation up. At the same time, the Japanese are very rich, but…