The direction of financial markets at the moment is mainly determined by interest rate movements. Whereas rising interest rates first caused price losses, falling interest rates are now causing price gains. Interest rates are falling because inflation is likely to have peaked in the United States. While inflation figures came…

Ten years ago, a Japanese with 10,000 yen could buy a $132 product in the United States, now a product of only $71. Conversely, Japan has become cheaper and cheaper for tourists. Ten years ago, you only got 100 yen for a euro, now it’s 145 (100 yen/141 US$). Until…

Last week, both the Federal Reserve and the ECB raised policy rates by 0.75 per cent. Commenting on that rate hike, both Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde indicated that they will continue with this tightening policy until inflation is under control. That explanation was mainly intended to prevent financial markets…

Mixed signals from the FOMC and commentary from Jerome Powell caused a lot of volatility in bond and currency markets last week. In the end, the rate hikes predicted by Powell do not appear to deviate from what has already been priced in by the market. So the Fed is…

On Tuesday, November 8, Americans may go to the polls. 435 new members of the House of Representatives will be elected. Currently, 220 House seats are held by Democrats and 212 by Republicans (there are still 3 vacant seats). Furthermore, 35 new senators may also be elected (out of 100)…

October is known as the month for crashes. Such an October crash does require stocks to have risen (strongly) during the year and optimism to be rampant. That was certainly not the case this year. Shares fell sharply ahead of October and there is a remarkably negative consensus. Perhaps partly…

Convergence real yields US-UK Green: Real yields on 30-year inflation loan the UK Gold: Real yields on 30-year inflation loan US Crispin Blunt is the first Conservative MP to think Prime Minister Liz Truss should leave. According to him, Truss cannot survive the current crisis, he says it is a…

Every bear market is simultaneously the start of a new bull market. The winners in the new bull market are rarely the winners of the last bull market. These winners already start to stand out during the bear market. In this respect, the energy sector would be an obvious candidate…

At the bottom of the stock market, there is never any good news, only uncertainty. Economic growth is declining, companies come out with profit warnings, nobody seems to know where the stock market or interest rates are going, currencies show big swings and the world is full of geopolitical risks…